A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
